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Capital MandateA read-only mirror from declared goals and values to costed paper-investment evidence. It ranks next experiments; it never votes, mutates a position, or places an external order.
- Evidence
- Insufficient sample
- Promotion
- Not ready
- Closed sample
- 0
- Net paper P&L
- $0.00
- Profit factor
- —
- Peak-equity drawdown
- 0.0%
Paper evidence
- Evidence
- Insufficient sample
- Closed sample
- 0
- Cost-reconciled trades
- 0
- Cost-reconciliation coverage
- —
- Net paper P&L
- $0.00
- Profit factor
- —
- Peak-equity drawdown
- 0.0%
External-market evidence
- External evidence
- Insufficient external sample
- External marks
- 0
- External net P&L
- $0.00
- External return / closed notional
- —
- External profit factor
- —
- External peak-equity drawdown
- —
- Lifecycle receipts
- 0
- Opening sweeps
- no
Profitability boundary. Positive net P&L alone is not a profitability claim. Every counted paper trade must exactly reconcile gross P&L, modeled cost, and net P&L; paper profitability also requires the sample, profit-quality, peak-equity drawdown, and terminal-pricing gates. External profitability additionally requires complete venue lifecycle evidence. Incomplete cost, terminal-price, or venue-lifecycle evidence is labelled incomplete—not unprofitable. Capital Mandate attribution is separate: only trades carrying an exact replayed recommendation receipt can attribute these descriptive results to the goals, ballots, questions, positions, merit, and coherence snapshot that motivated the experiment.
Promotion gates · paper evidence only
| Gate | Result | Measured | Needs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper execution remains enabled | pass | yes | yes |
| Enough closed, priced paper trades | not yet | 0 | minimum 30 |
| Net paper P&L is positive after modeled costs | not yet | 0 | greater than 0 |
| Every counted closed paper trade reconciles gross P&L, modeled cost, and net P&L | not yet | closed marked trades 0 · reconciled trades 0 | finite positive notional required yes · formula cost amount = notional * cost bps * 1e-4; net pnl = gross pnl - cost amount - margin.carry amount (0 without margin terms) · required coverage 1 |
| Profit factor clears the quality floor | not yet | gross loss 0 · gross profit 0 | minimum profit factor 1.1 · no loss sample allowed yes |
| Drawdown stays inside the peak-equity research budget | pass | 0 | denominator peak equity · maximum 0.1 |
| External-market marks are represented | not yet | 0 | minimum 10 |
| External-market paper P&L is positive after modeled costs | not yet | 0 | cohort external market closed marked trades · greater than 0 |
| External-market profit factor independently clears the quality floor | not yet | gross loss 0 · gross profit 0 | cohort external market closed marked trades · minimum profit factor 1.1 · no loss sample allowed yes |
| External-market drawdown independently stays inside the peak-equity research budget | not yet | — | denominator external cohort peak equity · maximum 0.1 · minimum external sample 10 |
| Every counted external paper trade has a reconciled exact-venue opening sweep and closing mark receipt | not yet | complete receipts 0 · external marked trades 0 | minimum complete receipts 10 · required fill coverage 1 |
| Every terminal trade has a price result | pass | 0 | 0 |
| Open gross exposure stays inside the leverage limit, with no paper liquidation | pass | equity usd 10000 · gross limit usd 10000 · liquidated trades 0 · mode cash | gross limit wallet seed (cash mode) · liquidated trades 0 · max leverage bps 10000 · open gross at most gross limit usd |
| Open derivative greeks stay inside the configured equity limits | pass | derivative trades 0 · net delta usd 0 · net vega usd per vol point 0 · unpriced derivative trades 0 | abs net delta usd at most 10000 · abs net vega at most 200 · max delta equity frac 1 · max vega equity frac 0.02 |
Promotion control · internal positions are not external orders
| Required external receipt | Verified | Structural verifier | Requirement | Freshness binding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gateway | no | no | Current binary, route, caller identity, and fail-closed dispatch receipt. | must bind the current binary, source, corpus, configuration, and operator identity |
| browser | no | no | Current served SSR, hydration, responsive geometry, and console receipt. | must bind the current binary, source, corpus, configuration, and operator identity |
| execution | no | yes | Venue-specific order lifecycle, fees, latency, fills, and cancellation receipt. | must bind the current binary, source, corpus, configuration, and operator identity |
| risk | no | yes | Loss budget, exposure, drawdown breaker, halt, and recovery receipt. | must bind the current binary, source, corpus, configuration, and operator identity |
| settlement | no | yes | Funds, custody, reconciliation, terminal pricing, and settlement receipt. | must bind the current binary, source, corpus, configuration, and operator identity |
| capital_transfer | no | yes | Terminal sandbox transfer status, exact execution ancestry, network fee, latency, and custody-delta receipt. | must bind the current binary, source, corpus, configuration, and operator identity |
Internal position bridge: no (post_positions_disabled) · External orders: no (external_order_path_absent_and_authenticated_receipt_chain_unconnected) · receipt verifier connected: no.
External paper adapter · readiness and fee evidence
| Surface | Current state | Boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Provider / adapter | alpaca-paper / cre8-alpaca-paper v0.2.0 | paper environment only |
| Runtime readiness | native HTTP: yes · credentials: no · probe: no | Credential values are never exposed; account state is checked only by an explicit probe. |
| Fee enrichment | Awaiting exact order bound fee activity | manual /capitalstrategy/sandbox/fee-enrich · authenticated /capitalstrategy/sandbox/fee-fetch · exact order binding required: yes |
| Live-order boundary | no | Structural enrichment earns no promotion credit or external attestation. |
| External evidence capabilities | 0 / 5 capture-ready · 5 structural verifiers | Gateway/browser are excluded; this adapter projection is not a global receipt census. |
| Append-only external bundle registry | connected: yes · authenticated arrival: no · fsync: no | Exact execution + risk + settlement + transfer are structurally replayed. No enumeration, latest/canonical selection, external attestation, or promotion authority. |
| Execution lifecycle | source capture: yes · runtime capture: yes · ready: no | Structural verifier connected: yes · authenticated receipt verified here: no · promotion: no |
| Exact-order fee | source capture: yes · runtime capture: yes · ready: no | Structural verifier connected: yes · authenticated receipt verified here: no · promotion: no |
| Risk control | source capture: no · runtime capture: no · ready: no | Structural verifier connected: yes · authenticated receipt verified here: no · promotion: no |
| Settlement / custody | source capture: no · runtime capture: no · ready: no | Structural verifier connected: yes · authenticated receipt verified here: no · promotion: no |
| Capital transfer | source capture: no · runtime capture: no · ready: no | Structural verifier connected: yes · authenticated receipt verified here: no · promotion: no |
Value ballot questions · evidence prompts, never automatic choices
q-care-need · What kind of care would help? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0Open ballot for explicit reviewq-care-offer · What kind of care can you offer? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0q-care-window · What time window matters most? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0q-energy · How much creative energy do you have today? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0Open ballot for explicit reviewq-need · What would help you today? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0q-offer · What can you offer today? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0q-commitment · How much commitment can you pledge this cycle? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0Open ballot for explicit reviewq-moonshot · Which moonshot are you ready to move toward? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0q-needed-support · What support would unlock your next move? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0q-sprint-intensity · How many sprint units can you commit this week? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0Open ballot for explicit reviewq-sprint-needs · Which roles does your sprint need? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0q-sprint-role · Which sprint roles can you take? · peer responses 0 · matching positions 0
| Ballot | Question | Value basis | Outcome | Peer value | Declared positions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Care Circle | What kind of care would help? | Measured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Care Circle | What kind of care can you offer? | Measured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Care Circle | What time window matters most? | Measured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Daily Position | How much creative energy do you have today? | Unmeasured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Daily Position | What would help you today? | Measured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Daily Position | What can you offer today? | Measured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Moonshot Alignment | How much commitment can you pledge this cycle? | Unmeasured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Moonshot Alignment | Which moonshot are you ready to move toward? | Measured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Moonshot Alignment | What support would unlock your next move? | Measured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Project Sprint | How many sprint units can you commit this week? | Unmeasured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Project Sprint | Which roles does your sprint need? | Measured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
| Project Sprint | Which sprint roles can you take? | Measured | Unmeasured · 0 choice(s) | Unmeasured · 0 response(s) | Measured · 0 matching position(s) |
Question boundary. Questions expose value basis, outcomes, peer responses, and declared-position context. They do not choose an answer, submit a ballot, mutate a position, or authorize capital.
Capital Observatory · profit, peer value, and efficiency stay separate
| Plane | Current state | Evidence boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Research review | no | Requires preregistration, a profitable named holdout, three independent folds, and observed cost evidence. |
| Walk-forward folds | 0 executed / 3 required | Insufficient independent folds · 0 configured · 0 passing |
| Observed cost model | no | Structural or modeled only · assumed sensitivity cannot replace authenticated, experiment-bound fee, latency, custody, transfer, and settlement receipts |
| Structural receipts grant promotion | no | Never. Observed-cost completion also requires authenticated transport, experiment binding, and terminal receipt verification. |
| Peer-value demand | Awaiting peer expressions | 0 responses · 0 positions · zero observations never means zero demand |
| Causal efficiency claim | no | Snapshot spreads and shadow fills describe market state; they do not prove an intervention improved it. |
| Live orders | no | Research review never grants broker execution, ballot submission, or position mutation authority. |
| Cost · Authenticated transport | Missing | Authenticated registry · credentialed transport provenance separate from structural JSON validity |
| Cost · Capital transfer | Missing | Observed control · transfer fee, latency, and terminal venue funding evidence when applicable |
| Cost · Cross venue fees | Missing | Authenticated registry · observed fee receipts for every compared venue leg in the exact current experiment |
| Cost · Exact order fee activity | Missing | Structural adapter · positive finite fee activity exactly bound to the terminal order |
| Cost · Experiment binding | Missing | Authenticated registry · receipt binds preregistration, corpus, fold, proposal, and binary identities |
| Cost · Latency | Missing | Observed execution · submitted, acknowledged, fill, and terminal timestamps |
| Cost · Observed cost replay | Missing | Deterministic fold replay · every fold-local selected winner passes a post-selection replay using that fold's authenticated p95 one-way fee calibration |
| Cost · Observed cost sample | Missing | Authenticated registry · at least 30 terminal fee orders per venue across at least two venues in every fold |
| Cost · Quote normalization | Missing | Observed fx · identical quote currency or hash-bound FX observation |
| Cost · Settlement and custody | Missing | Observed control · terminal settlement plus custody before/after reconciliation |
| Cost · Shadow fill fees | Missing | Authenticated registry · observed fees bound to every exact current experiment order |
| Cost · Terminal receipt verification | Missing | Authenticated registry · execution, fees, custody, and settlement join on exact order identity |
Demand × Quality × Return · descriptive fold-local alignment
| Alignment plane | Current state | Evidence boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Alignment status | Not assessed | A conclusion requires fold-local time alignment; a snapshot is not a predictive panel. |
| Snapshot geometry | Not assessed | Descriptive capital-versus-voice geometry is shown separately from return association. |
| Fold prerequisites | 0 / 3 | missing: Preregistration commitment, Three observation disjoint independent folds, Timestamped asset direction exposure trace for every fold, Timestamped measured asset demand windows, Repeated timestamped market quality vector, Canonical current study fold aligned observation receipt, Fold local block spearman and negative control receipts |
| Canonical fold-aligned receipt | Awaiting receipt | structural validation: no · current study binding: no |
| Backtest result projection | same-call hash-bound contract ready | result present: no · caller report accepted: no · establishes measurement: no |
| Result and review history | append-only contracts ready | recorded here: no · reviewed here: no · selected here: no · exact owner read: yes · enumeration: no · latest lookup: no · canonical pointer: no |
| Complete aligned windows | 0 observations / 0 folds | minimum 30 complete windows in each of 3 independent folds; effect receipts remain separate |
| Primary fold-local endpoints | 3 | Block spearman alignment vs costed return, Block spearman alignment vs information uplift, Block spearman demand magnitude vs each market quality delta |
| Negative controls | 8 | Peer block permutation, Future shift, Asset mapping permutation, Unmapped ballot placebo, Ballot only ablation, Position only ablation, No demand ablation, Provider market shuffle |
| Predictive association | no | Not established by current snapshot evidence. |
| Causal efficiency | no | No intervention or causal efficiency claim is established. |
| Profitability claim | no | Descriptive alignment cannot substitute for costed external lifecycle receipts. |
| Live-order eligibility | no | Alignment evidence never submits a ballot, mutates a position, moves funds, or authorizes an order. |
Per-question capital voice geometry
| Question | Geometry | Hellinger | Weighted / raw pressure | Responses | Positions | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| q-care-need | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-care-offer | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-care-window | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-energy | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-need | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-offer | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-commitment | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-moonshot | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-needed-support | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-sprint-intensity | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-sprint-needs | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
| q-sprint-role | Not assessed | — | not assessed | 0 | 0 | descriptive snapshot · not predictive or causal |
Observed-cost receipt registry · exact current Evolution only
| Registry gate | Current state | Evidence boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Registry status | Awaiting executed fold winners | 0 events · 0 bytes · scope Exact current evolution |
| Journal integrity | yes | append-only hash chain: yes · durable head matches journal: yes |
| Cross-process writer lease | Available · available: yes | A second writer is refused; PID and process start time identify the current lease owner. |
| Automatic stale reclamation | no | explicit owner-confirmed recovery only · head: Complete canonical hash valid journal only · torn-tail repair: no · rotation: Refuse at cap no implicit deletion · directory durability: Platform dependent |
| Exact experiment binding | no | The current executable, preregistration, manifest, corpus, fold, and proposal must all match. |
| Authenticated transport | no | Credentialed runtime transport provenance is distinct from caller-supplied structural JSON. |
| Terminal order receipts | no | Execution, exact fees, settlement, and custody must reconcile on the same order identity. |
| Component coverage | 0 / 9 | missing: capital_transfer_observed, cross_venue_fees_observed, exact_order_binding_verified, fees_observed, latency_observed, observed_cost_sample_sufficient, quote_normalized, settlement_and_custody_observed, terminal_execution_receipt_verified |
| Promotion evidence complete | no | Registry completion is research evidence only; live-order eligibility remains false. |
| Venue payload signature | no | Not claimed by authenticated HTTPS transport or structural receipt verification. |
| Malicious local operator tamper-proof | no | The durable hash chain detects accidental or unsophisticated drift; it is not an external trust root. |
| Live orders | no | Registry evidence never moves funds, submits ballots, mutates positions, or grants broker authority. |
| Component · Capital transfer observed | Missing | Only the exact current Evolution binding can satisfy this component. |
| Component · Cross venue fees observed | Missing | Only the exact current Evolution binding can satisfy this component. |
| Component · Exact order binding verified | Missing | Only the exact current Evolution binding can satisfy this component. |
| Component · Fees observed | Missing | Only the exact current Evolution binding can satisfy this component. |
| Component · Latency observed | Missing | Only the exact current Evolution binding can satisfy this component. |
| Component · Observed cost sample sufficient | Missing | Only the exact current Evolution binding can satisfy this component. |
| Component · Quote normalized | Missing | Only the exact current Evolution binding can satisfy this component. |
| Component · Settlement and custody observed | Missing | Only the exact current Evolution binding can satisfy this component. |
| Component · Terminal execution receipt verified | Missing | Only the exact current Evolution binding can satisfy this component. |
Authority boundary. Only runtime-recorded credentialed paper evidence matching every current fold binding is counted. Structural receipts, stale receipts, and unrelated experiments receive no credit. Venue payload signatures and malicious-local-operator tamper resistance are not claimed.
Suggested next actions · goal-ranked, never auto-applied
| Kind | Action | Goal score | Evidence receipt | Control | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| investment_test | Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | 0.00 | medium · 5/7 witnesses · 8 missing | explicit choice | Preview the current solver candidate, inspect how goals, ballots, questions, positions, merit, and coherence shaped this recommendation, then explicitly choose whether to open one paper-only trade. The exact explanation receipt is retained on the trade for later attribution; no external order or funds movement is authorized. |
| investment_test | Run a costed replay before changing capital | 0.00 | medium · 5/7 witnesses · 8 missing | read-only | Compare the full strategy with its regime and forecast ablations over recorded bars. This is research evidence, not a live-order instruction. |
| market_evidence | Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | 0.00 | medium · 5/7 witnesses · 8 missing · Opening sweeps disabled · all execution gates · exact-venue depth · hold is a valid outcome | read-only | External profitability claims need ten costed closing marks with exact-venue opening sweeps. Current progress: 0 marked and 0 lifecycle-complete; 10 marks and 10 complete lifecycles remain. Opening-sweep capture is currently disabled. Dry-run the feed plan before collecting evidence; do not force a trade when the decision or depth gates say hold. |
| execution_evidence | Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | 0.00 | medium · 5/7 witnesses · 8 missing | explicit choice | Use CRE8's owner-gated Alpaca paper adapter to capture a tiny BTC/USD fill-and-cancel lifecycle over credentialed HTTPS. The hard $25 ceiling, paper-only origin allowlist, and pending end-of-day fee gate keep this evidence separate from live-order eligibility. |
| execution_evidence | Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | 0.00 | medium · 5/7 witnesses · 8 missing | read-only | Run two no-real-funds orders through one venue's paper/testnet API: a filled probe with observed fee evidence and a separate canceled probe. The verifier checks identities, hashes, quantities, event order, and latency, but structural validity alone cannot promote live orders. |
| goal | Declare the capital mandate in Goals | 0.00 | medium · 5/7 witnesses · 7 missing | explicit choice | Goal.Score can rank investment experiments only after the intended return, risk, time horizon, and values boundary are written down. |
| ballot | Reflect on: Care Circle | 0.00 | medium · 5/7 witnesses · 7 missing | explicit choice | Reflect before allocating capital: What kind of care would help? |
| position | Write the investable constraints as a Position | 0.00 | medium · 5/7 witnesses · 7 missing | explicit choice | Make the outward economic claim explicit: acceptable assets, maximum loss budget, prohibited venues, and desired return. Creating it remains a separate user decision. |
Coherence mirror · two different witnesses
Mirror scores explain what you repeatedly choose; they never change recommendation rank or select your values.
| Witness | Score | Connection | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value coherence | 1.000 | Agent.Merit | Ballot-derived values vs explicit economic action receipts |
| Attention coherence | — | Coherence.AuditFor | Historical habit, stake, and attention commitments |
| Commitment drift | — | Coherence.AuditFor | Lost stake divided by total stake; not a ballot-value score |
Adjacent economic sources
| Source | Available | OK | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballots | yes | yes | — |
| Ballot responses | yes | yes | — |
| Positions | yes | yes | — |
| Goals | yes | yes | — |
| Value coherence | yes | yes | — |
| Attention coherence | no | no | not run for a page view: the attention audit replays the whole protocol graph under its global lock; the last audit an advisor request fetched is shown once there is one |
Safety boundary
Live-order eligibility: false. A positive paper result can earn review, never silent promotion. Run a costed replay before changing a mandate.
Why each recommendation · seven read-only witness planes
Recommendation-bound paper experiment. Preview the current candidate, inspect its seven-plane explanation receipt, then explicitly choose whether to open one paper-only trade. Preview paper candidate. Opening requires explicit confirmation and the verified owner gate. This does not authorize an external order, ballot, position mutation, or funds movement.
| Action kind | State | Globally ranked candidates | Selected action | Mutation | User choice | Visible in coverage slate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal | Actionable | 1 | Declare the capital mandate in Goals | explicit_user_choice | yes | yes |
| Ballot | Actionable | 2 | Reflect on: Care Circle | explicit_user_choice | yes | yes |
| Position | Actionable | 1 | Write the investable constraints as a Position | explicit_user_choice | yes | yes |
| Action | Witness | Status | Role | Receipt detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Paper market evidence | Unmeasured | Blocks | 0 priced closed paper trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity 0.0000, with 0/0 exact gross-cost-net reconciliations. 0 external-market-marked trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity unmeasured, with 0 complete opening-sweep and closing-mark receipt bundles; external evidence status insufficient_external_sample, promotion status not_ready. |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Goals | Measured | Ranks | Goal.Score contributed a 0.000 fit score; per-goal detail remains attached. |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Ballots | Measured | Context | 6 ballot catalog item(s) were visible; ballot choices remain explicit user actions. |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Ballot questions | Measured | Context | 18 bounded question witness(es) contributed value-basis, outcome, response, or matching context. |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Positions | Measured | Context | 0 declared economic position(s) were observed; none authorizes an order. |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Value coherence | Measured | Reflects | Agent merit reported 1.000 ballot-to-action value coherence. |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Attention coherence | Unavailable | Reflects | Coherence.AuditFor exposed no attention-coherence score. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Paper market evidence | Unmeasured | Blocks | 0 priced closed paper trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity 0.0000, with 0/0 exact gross-cost-net reconciliations. 0 external-market-marked trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity unmeasured, with 0 complete opening-sweep and closing-mark receipt bundles; external evidence status insufficient_external_sample, promotion status not_ready. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Goals | Measured | Ranks | Goal.Score contributed a 0.000 fit score; per-goal detail remains attached. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Ballots | Measured | Context | 6 ballot catalog item(s) were visible; ballot choices remain explicit user actions. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Ballot questions | Measured | Context | 18 bounded question witness(es) contributed value-basis, outcome, response, or matching context. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Positions | Measured | Context | 0 declared economic position(s) were observed; none authorizes an order. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Value coherence | Measured | Reflects | Agent merit reported 1.000 ballot-to-action value coherence. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Attention coherence | Unavailable | Reflects | Coherence.AuditFor exposed no attention-coherence score. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Paper market evidence | Unmeasured | Blocks | 0 priced closed paper trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity 0.0000, with 0/0 exact gross-cost-net reconciliations. 0 external-market-marked trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity unmeasured, with 0 complete opening-sweep and closing-mark receipt bundles; external evidence status insufficient_external_sample, promotion status not_ready. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Goals | Measured | Ranks | Goal.Score contributed a 0.000 fit score; per-goal detail remains attached. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Ballots | Measured | Context | 6 ballot catalog item(s) were visible; ballot choices remain explicit user actions. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Ballot questions | Measured | Context | 18 bounded question witness(es) contributed value-basis, outcome, response, or matching context. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Positions | Measured | Context | 0 declared economic position(s) were observed; none authorizes an order. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Value coherence | Measured | Reflects | Agent merit reported 1.000 ballot-to-action value coherence. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Attention coherence | Unavailable | Reflects | Coherence.AuditFor exposed no attention-coherence score. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Paper market evidence | Unmeasured | Blocks | 0 priced closed paper trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity 0.0000, with 0/0 exact gross-cost-net reconciliations. 0 external-market-marked trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity unmeasured, with 0 complete opening-sweep and closing-mark receipt bundles; external evidence status insufficient_external_sample, promotion status not_ready. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Goals | Measured | Ranks | Goal.Score contributed a 0.000 fit score; per-goal detail remains attached. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Ballots | Measured | Context | 6 ballot catalog item(s) were visible; ballot choices remain explicit user actions. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Ballot questions | Measured | Context | 18 bounded question witness(es) contributed value-basis, outcome, response, or matching context. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Positions | Measured | Context | 0 declared economic position(s) were observed; none authorizes an order. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Value coherence | Measured | Reflects | Agent merit reported 1.000 ballot-to-action value coherence. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Attention coherence | Unavailable | Reflects | Coherence.AuditFor exposed no attention-coherence score. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Paper market evidence | Unmeasured | Blocks | 0 priced closed paper trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity 0.0000, with 0/0 exact gross-cost-net reconciliations. 0 external-market-marked trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity unmeasured, with 0 complete opening-sweep and closing-mark receipt bundles; external evidence status insufficient_external_sample, promotion status not_ready. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Goals | Measured | Ranks | Goal.Score contributed a 0.000 fit score; per-goal detail remains attached. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Ballots | Measured | Context | 6 ballot catalog item(s) were visible; ballot choices remain explicit user actions. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Ballot questions | Measured | Context | 18 bounded question witness(es) contributed value-basis, outcome, response, or matching context. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Positions | Measured | Context | 0 declared economic position(s) were observed; none authorizes an order. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Value coherence | Measured | Reflects | Agent merit reported 1.000 ballot-to-action value coherence. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Attention coherence | Unavailable | Reflects | Coherence.AuditFor exposed no attention-coherence score. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Paper market evidence | Unmeasured | Blocks | 0 priced closed paper trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity 0.0000, with 0/0 exact gross-cost-net reconciliations. 0 external-market-marked trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity unmeasured, with 0 complete opening-sweep and closing-mark receipt bundles; external evidence status insufficient_external_sample, promotion status not_ready. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Goals | Measured | Ranks | Goal.Score contributed a 0.000 fit score; per-goal detail remains attached. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Ballots | Measured | Context | 6 ballot catalog item(s) were visible; ballot choices remain explicit user actions. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Ballot questions | Measured | Context | 18 bounded question witness(es) contributed value-basis, outcome, response, or matching context. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Positions | Measured | Context | 0 declared economic position(s) were observed; none authorizes an order. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Value coherence | Measured | Reflects | Agent merit reported 1.000 ballot-to-action value coherence. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Attention coherence | Unavailable | Reflects | Coherence.AuditFor exposed no attention-coherence score. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Paper market evidence | Unmeasured | Blocks | 0 priced closed paper trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity 0.0000, with 0/0 exact gross-cost-net reconciliations. 0 external-market-marked trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity unmeasured, with 0 complete opening-sweep and closing-mark receipt bundles; external evidence status insufficient_external_sample, promotion status not_ready. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Goals | Measured | Ranks | Goal.Score contributed a 0.000 fit score; per-goal detail remains attached. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Ballots | Measured | Prompts | 6 ballot catalog item(s) were visible; ballot choices remain explicit user actions. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Ballot questions | Measured | Prompts | 3 bounded question witness(es) contributed value-basis, outcome, response, or matching context. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Positions | Measured | Context | 0 declared economic position(s) were observed; none authorizes an order. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Value coherence | Measured | Reflects | Agent merit reported 1.000 ballot-to-action value coherence. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Attention coherence | Unavailable | Reflects | Coherence.AuditFor exposed no attention-coherence score. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Paper market evidence | Unmeasured | Blocks | 0 priced closed paper trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity 0.0000, with 0/0 exact gross-cost-net reconciliations. 0 external-market-marked trades: net P&L -0.00, return on closed notional unmeasured, profit factor unmeasured, drawdown/peak equity unmeasured, with 0 complete opening-sweep and closing-mark receipt bundles; external evidence status insufficient_external_sample, promotion status not_ready. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Goals | Measured | Ranks | Goal.Score contributed a 0.000 fit score; per-goal detail remains attached. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Ballots | Measured | Context | 6 ballot catalog item(s) were visible; ballot choices remain explicit user actions. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Ballot questions | Measured | Context | 18 bounded question witness(es) contributed value-basis, outcome, response, or matching context. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Positions | Measured | Constrains | 0 declared economic position(s) were observed; none authorizes an order. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Value coherence | Measured | Reflects | Agent merit reported 1.000 ballot-to-action value coherence. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Attention coherence | Unavailable | Reflects | Coherence.AuditFor exposed no attention-coherence score. |
| Action | Missing evidence before stronger confidence |
|---|---|
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Costed, terminally priced closed paper trades. |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Exact gross-P&L minus modeled-cost equals net-P&L reconciliation for every closed paper trade (currently 0/0). |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | At least 10 venue-marked external paper trades (currently 0). |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Reconciled exact-venue opening shadow sweeps and closing venue marks for every external paper trade, with at least 10 complete no-funds lifecycle receipts (currently 0/0). |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Paper execution started with CRE8_CAPITALSTRATEGY_IMPACT_AWARE_COSTS=true so accepted opens can retain exact-venue shadow sweeps. |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | An explicit economic position declaring investable constraints. |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | An attention-coherence receipt from Coherence.AuditFor. |
| Open one recommendation-bound paper investment | Fresh gateway, browser, execution, risk, settlement, and capital-transfer receipts required for any live-order promotion. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Costed, terminally priced closed paper trades. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Exact gross-P&L minus modeled-cost equals net-P&L reconciliation for every closed paper trade (currently 0/0). |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | At least 10 venue-marked external paper trades (currently 0). |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Reconciled exact-venue opening shadow sweeps and closing venue marks for every external paper trade, with at least 10 complete no-funds lifecycle receipts (currently 0/0). |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Paper execution started with CRE8_CAPITALSTRATEGY_IMPACT_AWARE_COSTS=true so accepted opens can retain exact-venue shadow sweeps. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | An explicit economic position declaring investable constraints. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | An attention-coherence receipt from Coherence.AuditFor. |
| Run a costed replay before changing capital | Fresh gateway, browser, execution, risk, settlement, and capital-transfer receipts required for any live-order promotion. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Costed, terminally priced closed paper trades. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Exact gross-P&L minus modeled-cost equals net-P&L reconciliation for every closed paper trade (currently 0/0). |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | At least 10 venue-marked external paper trades (currently 0). |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Reconciled exact-venue opening shadow sweeps and closing venue marks for every external paper trade, with at least 10 complete no-funds lifecycle receipts (currently 0/0). |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Paper execution started with CRE8_CAPITALSTRATEGY_IMPACT_AWARE_COSTS=true so accepted opens can retain exact-venue shadow sweeps. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | An explicit economic position declaring investable constraints. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | An attention-coherence receipt from Coherence.AuditFor. |
| Collect ten reconciled venue-marked paper lifecycles | Fresh gateway, browser, execution, risk, settlement, and capital-transfer receipts required for any live-order promotion. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Costed, terminally priced closed paper trades. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Exact gross-P&L minus modeled-cost equals net-P&L reconciliation for every closed paper trade (currently 0/0). |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | At least 10 venue-marked external paper trades (currently 0). |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Reconciled exact-venue opening shadow sweeps and closing venue marks for every external paper trade, with at least 10 complete no-funds lifecycle receipts (currently 0/0). |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Paper execution started with CRE8_CAPITALSTRATEGY_IMPACT_AWARE_COSTS=true so accepted opens can retain exact-venue shadow sweeps. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | An explicit economic position declaring investable constraints. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | An attention-coherence receipt from Coherence.AuditFor. |
| Run a bounded credentialed paper-market probe | Fresh gateway, browser, execution, risk, settlement, and capital-transfer receipts required for any live-order promotion. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Costed, terminally priced closed paper trades. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Exact gross-P&L minus modeled-cost equals net-P&L reconciliation for every closed paper trade (currently 0/0). |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | At least 10 venue-marked external paper trades (currently 0). |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Reconciled exact-venue opening shadow sweeps and closing venue marks for every external paper trade, with at least 10 complete no-funds lifecycle receipts (currently 0/0). |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Paper execution started with CRE8_CAPITALSTRATEGY_IMPACT_AWARE_COSTS=true so accepted opens can retain exact-venue shadow sweeps. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | An explicit economic position declaring investable constraints. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | An attention-coherence receipt from Coherence.AuditFor. |
| Verify an external sandbox fill-and-cancel bundle | Fresh gateway, browser, execution, risk, settlement, and capital-transfer receipts required for any live-order promotion. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Costed, terminally priced closed paper trades. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Exact gross-P&L minus modeled-cost equals net-P&L reconciliation for every closed paper trade (currently 0/0). |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | At least 10 venue-marked external paper trades (currently 0). |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Reconciled exact-venue opening shadow sweeps and closing venue marks for every external paper trade, with at least 10 complete no-funds lifecycle receipts (currently 0/0). |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | Paper execution started with CRE8_CAPITALSTRATEGY_IMPACT_AWARE_COSTS=true so accepted opens can retain exact-venue shadow sweeps. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | An explicit economic position declaring investable constraints. |
| Declare the capital mandate in Goals | An attention-coherence receipt from Coherence.AuditFor. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Costed, terminally priced closed paper trades. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Exact gross-P&L minus modeled-cost equals net-P&L reconciliation for every closed paper trade (currently 0/0). |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | At least 10 venue-marked external paper trades (currently 0). |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Reconciled exact-venue opening shadow sweeps and closing venue marks for every external paper trade, with at least 10 complete no-funds lifecycle receipts (currently 0/0). |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | Paper execution started with CRE8_CAPITALSTRATEGY_IMPACT_AWARE_COSTS=true so accepted opens can retain exact-venue shadow sweeps. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | An explicit economic position declaring investable constraints. |
| Reflect on: Care Circle | An attention-coherence receipt from Coherence.AuditFor. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Costed, terminally priced closed paper trades. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Exact gross-P&L minus modeled-cost equals net-P&L reconciliation for every closed paper trade (currently 0/0). |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | At least 10 venue-marked external paper trades (currently 0). |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Reconciled exact-venue opening shadow sweeps and closing venue marks for every external paper trade, with at least 10 complete no-funds lifecycle receipts (currently 0/0). |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | Paper execution started with CRE8_CAPITALSTRATEGY_IMPACT_AWARE_COSTS=true so accepted opens can retain exact-venue shadow sweeps. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | An explicit economic position declaring investable constraints. |
| Write the investable constraints as a Position | An attention-coherence receipt from Coherence.AuditFor. |
Ranking boundary. Goal.Score ranks every candidate descending with missing scores treated as zero; ties use priority descending, then recommendation id ascending. The visible slate then reserves the best globally ranked goal, ballot, and position action when capacity allows, preserves global order among selected rows, and fills remaining capacity by global rank. Ballot, question, position, coherence, and paper-market witnesses explain context and gates; they do not silently authorize or execute mutations.
Peer-value economic alignment backtest
Status. Awaiting explicit preregistered fold evidence · embedded POST evidence route: /capitalstrategy/peer-value/backtest/evaluate · read-only registry receipt-reference route: /capitalstrategy/peer-value/backtest/registry-evaluate.
Evidence ladder · three claims that never collapse into one score
- Structural capacity. Marginal netting describes unmatched demand and overhang capacity only. It is not liquidity, market efficiency, value creation, or profit.
- Economic association. Exact tie-safe block Spearman compares a fixed clearing signal with a retained canonical source envelope and its pre-quantized integer outcome across observation-disjoint holdout blocks. Every signal is recomputed from exact canonical peer positions and value lenses through the fail-closed peer-clearing diagnostic; an independently supplied scalar or clearing hash cannot establish evidence. The registry route accepts one atomic evidence-pair receipt identity—not separate clearing/outcome IDs, bodies, or values—and resolves its exact clearing and economic components from one receiver-owned HyperDB replay. One requested local batch stores the pair, receiver sequence, and component indexes together, while fsync and an unambiguous crash outcome remain explicitly unproven. Before scoring, the evaluator replays the outcome envelope plus the exact bounded canonical JSON bytes of every referenced price-window/observed-cost or before/after market-quality receipt, then verifies their provider, market, venue, asset, fold, coverage time, measurement unit/scale, payload hash, and adapter fields. The SHA-bound calculator then recomputes either conservative costed simple return in PPB or an exact same-scale market-quality delta with checked integer math; declared and recomputed outcomes must match exactly. Only a fold-local observed-cost calibration may cover multiple rows; price-window and market-quality receipt identities may not repeat, and no ancestry receipt may cross folds. It validates the outcome against one committed quantization plan, binds each negative control to a source-pinned transform contract, fixes one unique seed per fold/control pair before scoring so post-observation seed shopping fails closed, and preregisters one alternate provider-market coordinate. The evaluator itself replays peer-block permutation, nonwrapping future shift, asset mapping, unmapped ballot, ballot-only, position-only, no-demand, and alternate provider-market controls from retained evidence; caller-authored control rows are rejected. The source-replayed primary effect must beat the strongest absolute same-fold control plus margin, and any positive future-shift gain fails the whole evaluation. A local prospective diagnostic additionally requires the exact canonical fold-aligned receipt and a freshly loaded corpus whose manifest/corpus hashes, fold definitions, row/source identities, holdout coordinates, and recomputed zero-reuse facts all match. Serialized disjointness flags never establish that gate. Current-study binding supports costed return and exact before/after market-quality delta. Market-quality rows require distinct
market_qualityandmarket_quality_afterancestry keys; multi-asset current-study binding remains unavailable. Authenticated receiver/provider ingestion and source-receipt authentication are still not connected. Disjointness does not establish statistical independence. - Promotion and live authority. Authenticated arrival ancestry, fresh current-corpus binding, independent prospective credit, observed lifecycle costs, and human approval remain separate gates—and are currently absent.
Result semantics. Each successful evaluation also emits one hash-bound Observatory projection from the same evaluator call. That is a local software assertion, not an independently authenticated execution attestation. It names the local verdict, fold/control summary, current-corpus and atomic-pair status, and exact evidence blockers. Caller-supplied reports are never accepted, and the projection cannot grant predictive, profit, efficiency, promotion, ballot, position, funds, settlement, or live-order claims.
Append-only result and human review. The gateway-verified owner evaluate-and-record route stores only the exact same-call report/projection receipt and writes no latest or canonical pointer. Exact result and review retrieval is owner-verified, read-only, and identifier-addressed; enumeration and latest lookup do not exist. A separate gateway-context-verified review route appends an accountable decision and bounded rationale while storing only a reviewer-account hash; it is not an external identity attestation. Reviews never mutate, supersede, select, promote, trade, settle, or move funds.
Association is not profit. Typed coordinate/time/measurement and formula validation do not authenticate provider meaning or prove causal source truth. The preregistered endpoint uses every observation-disjoint block and every exact negative control without post-hoc endpoint choice. Profitability, causality, promotion, ballot, position, funds, and live-order authority remain false.